Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 11.969976 13.707742 15.580086 17.743777 20.171478 22.807503 25.882492
2025-06-08 9.259994 11.580318 14.275836 17.623921 21.655170 26.335835 32.164173
2025-06-15 7.963797 10.537850 13.674766 17.751489 22.878870 29.080629 37.112588
2025-06-22 7.133730 9.924987 13.473404 18.270889 24.536701 32.385420 42.895316
2025-06-29 6.231437 9.071728 12.822213 18.074630 25.166821 34.327084 46.954059
2025-07-06 5.264125 8.008436 11.767531 17.212588 24.801105 34.889635 49.178906
2025-07-13 4.873275 7.698209 11.690337 17.639971 26.154368 37.749229 54.545148
2025-07-20 4.510065 7.383282 11.564937 17.965619 27.354380 40.427682 59.761097
2025-07-27 4.093020 6.940580 11.206415 17.908214 27.976727 42.300597 63.908058
2025-08-03 3.690595 6.477565 10.771897 17.690790 28.327686 43.774248 67.520252
2025-08-10 3.389656 6.145550 10.505627 17.697536 28.992724 45.708869 71.856720
2025-08-17 3.158422 5.904762 10.359162 17.870250 29.903728 48.028079 76.837067
2025-08-24 2.900984 5.600994 10.095608 17.850001 30.531476 49.980301 81.407145
2025-08-31 2.641579 5.268695 9.757763 17.681841 30.908585 51.559872 85.475056
2025-09-07 2.465188 5.066571 9.619679 17.826604 31.782563 53.928136 90.832837
2025-09-14 2.364850 4.994985 9.699825 18.341901 33.285570 57.344824 97.965015
2025-09-21 2.164856 4.713931 9.385406 18.147068 33.578592 58.821037 102.050065
2025-09-28 1.890673 4.259717 8.719958 17.281230 32.668806 58.282450 102.836332
2025-10-05 1.814981 4.196463 8.772526 17.710384 34.020784 61.526325 109.928952
2025-10-12 1.731588 4.109022 8.771421 18.037099 35.202386 64.524389 116.716270
2025-10-19 1.609235 3.927110 8.573333 17.979523 35.686866 66.350497 121.593958
2025-10-26 1.479666 3.716383 8.301611 17.761315 35.861756 67.641870 125.598852
2025-11-02 1.384505 3.572374 8.152257 17.768089 36.446385 69.660935 130.915956